IMF World Economic Outlook 2023: GDP +2.9% in 2023 with Inflation at 6.6%, Key Drivers & Risks are Inflation, China Recovery, Domestic Economic Strength, Supply Side, Russia War in Ukraine, Geo-Politics, COVID-19, Debt Distress & Financial Market Repricing

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IMF World Economic Outlook 2023: GDP +2.9% in 2023 with Inflation at 6.6%, Key Drivers & Risks are Inflation, China Recovery, Domestic Economic Strength, Supply Side, Russia War in Ukraine, Geo-Politics, COVID-19, Debt Distress & Financial Market Repricing

10th February 2023 | Hong Kong

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has released the World Economic Outlook 2023, providing key insights into global economy & forecast for 2023 & 2024.   The global economy (GDP) is forecast to grow 2.9% in 2023 (2022: 3.4%) and 3.1% in 2024, with inflation at 6.6% in 2023 (2022: 8.8%) and 4.3% in 2024.  The 2023 global economy key drivers and risks are – Inflation, China Recovery, Domestic Economic Strength, Supply Side, Russia War in Ukraine, Geo-Politics, COVID-19, Debt Distress, and Financial Market Repricing.  Emerging & Developing Economies are forecast to grow 4% vs Advanced Economies of 1.2%.  2023 GDP forecast for Top 10 Economies: United States +1.4%, China +5.2%, Japan +1.8%, Germany +0.1%, India +6.1%, United Kingdom -0.6%, France +0.7%, Canada +1.5%, Russia +0.3%, Italy +0.6%.  Top 10 GDP 2022: United States $25 trillion, China $18.3 trillion, Japan $4.3 trillion, Germany $4 trillion, India $3.4 trillion, United Kingdom $3.1 trillion, France $2.7 trillion, Canada $2.2 trillion, Russia $2.1 trillion, Italy $1.9 trillion.  The top 10 economies in the world represents 66% of global GDP (2022: $101.5 trillion).   Selected GDP forecast for Asia-Pacific (APAC) Economies – Japan +1.8%, China +5.2%, India +6.1%, South Korea +1.7%, Indonesia +4.8%, Thailand +3.7%, Malaysia +4.4%, Philippines +5%, Australia +1.6%.  Selected GDP for APAC Economies – China $18.3 trillion, Japan $4.3 trillion, India $3.4 trillion, South Korea – $1.7 trillion, Indonesia – $1.2 trillion, Thailand $543 billion, Malaysia $434 billion, Philippines $401 billion, Australia $1.7 trillion.  Financial Centres GDP: UAE $503 billion, Hong Kong $368 billion, Singapore $423 billion, Luxembourg $82 billion.   (GDP ~ Gross Domestic Product) View key summary below | Full Report here

“ IMF World Economic Outlook 2023: GDP +2.9% in 2023 with Inflation at 6.6%, Key Drivers & Risks are Inflation, China Recovery, Domestic Economic Strength, Supply Side, Russia War in Ukraine, Geo-Politics, COVID-19, Debt Distress & Financial Market Repricing “

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IMF World Economic Outlook 2023

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has released the World Economic Outlook 2023, providing key insights into global economy & forecast for 2023 & 2024.

IMF World Economic Outlook 2023

Key Summary – Findings

1. Key Drivers & Risks: Inflation, China Recovery, Domestic Economic Strength, Supply Side, Russia War in Ukraine, Geo-Politics, COVID-19, Debt Distress, Financial Market Repricing
2. Economy Key Drivers – Global fight against inflation, Russia’s war in Ukraine, Resurgence of COVID-19 in China 
3. Outlook – Domestic Economic Strength, Supply Side, COVID-19 Deepens Slowdown in China
4. Economy Upside Risks – Pent-up demand boost, Faster disinflation
5. Economy Downside Risks – China’s recovery stalling, War in Ukraine escalating, Debt distress, Inflation persisting, Sudden financial market repricing, Geopolitical fragmentation
6. IMF Policy Priorities – Securing global disinflation, Containing the reemergence of COVID-19, Ensuring financial stability, Restoring debt sustainability, Supporting the vulnerable, Reinforcing supply, Strengthen Multilateral Cooperation
7. Urgent Actions to Strengthen Multilateral Cooperation Needed – Restraining the pandemic, Addressing debt distress, Strengthening global trade, Using the global financial safety net, Speeding the green transition 

Key Summary – Data

1. 2023 GDP forecast: +2.9% (2022: +3.4%)
2. 2024 GDP forecast: +3.1% (2000-2019 – Average +3.8%)
3. 2023 Inflation forecast: +6.6% (2022: +8.8%)
4. 2024 Inflation forecast: +4.3% (2017 – 2019: Average +3.5%)
5. 2023 GDP forecast for largest economy United States: +1.4%, $25 trillion
6. 2023 GDP forecast for 2nd largest economy China: +5.2%, $18.3 trillion
7. 2023 GDP forecast for 3rd largest economy Japan: +1.8%, Japan $4.3 trillion
8. 2023 GDP forecast for Top 10 Economies: United States +1.4%, China +5.2%, Japan +1.8%, Germany +0.1%, India +6.1%, United Kingdom -0.6%, France +0.7%, Canada +1.5%, Russia +0.3%, Italy +0.6%
9. Top 10 GDP 2022: United States $25 trillion, China $18.3 trillion, Japan $4.3 trillion, Germany $4 trillion, India $3.4 trillion, United Kingdom $3.1 trillion, France $2.7 trillion, Canada $2.2 trillion, Russia $2.1 trillion, Italy $1.9 trillion
10. Top 10 GDP 2022:  Top 10 economies represents 66% of global GDP
11. 2022 GDP: $101.5 trillion
12. Selected GDP forecast for APAC Economies – Japan +1.8%, China +5.2%, India +6.1%, South Korea +1.7%, Indonesia +4.8%, Thailand +3.7%, Malaysia +4.4%, Philippines +5%, Australia +1.6%
13. Selected GDP for APAC Economies – China $18.3 trillion, Japan $4.3 trillion, India $3.4 trillion, South Korea – $1.7 trillion, Indonesia – $1.2 trillion, Thailand $543 billion, Malaysia $434 billion, Philippines $401 billion, Australia $1.7 trillion
14. Financial Centres GDP: UAE $503 billion, Hong Kong $368 billion, Singapore $423 billion, Luxembourg $82 billion

1) GDP Forecasts

2023 Forecast

• GDP Forecast: +2.9% (2022: +3.4%)
• Inflation Forecast: +6.6% (2022: +8.8%)
• Advanced Economies: +1.2% (2022: +2.7%)
• Emerging & Developing Economies: +4% (2022: +3.9%)

2024 Forecast

• GDP Forecast: +3.1% (2000-2019 – Average +3.8%)
• Inflation Forecast: +4.3% (2017 – 2019: Average +3.5%)
• Advanced Economies: +1.4%
• Emerging & Developing Economies: +4.2%

Top 10 Countries GDP Growth in 2023 (2024)

1. United States: +1.4% (+1%)
2. China: +5.2% (+4.5%)
3. Japan: +1.8% (+0.9%)
4. Germany: +0.1% (+1.4%)
5. India: +6.1% (+6.8%)
6. United Kingdom: -0.6% (+0.9%)
7. France: +0.7% (+1.6%)
8. Canada: +1.5% (+1.5%)
9. Russia: +0.3% (+2.1%)
10. Italy: +0.6% (+0.9%)

Top 10 GDP 2022

1. United States – $25 trillion
2. China – $18.3 trillion
3. Japan – $4.3 trillion
4. Germany – $4 trillion
5. India – $3.4 trillion
6. United Kingdom – $3.1 trillion
7. France – $2.7 trillion
8. Canada – $2.2 trillion
9. Russia – $2.1 trillion
10. Italy – $1.9 trillion

In 2022, the global GDP is estimated at $101.5 trillion, with the top 10 economies representing 66% of global GDP.  In Asia, China, Japan & India are the top 3 largest economies, 3 of the top 5 largest economies in the world, and represents 25% of global GDP.  

Americas & Europe GDP Growth in 2023 (2024)

1. United States: +1.4% (+1%)
2. United Kingdom: -0.6% (+0.9%)
3. Russia: +0.3% (+2.1%)
4. Germany: +0.1% (+1.4%)
5. France: +0.7% (+1.6%)
6. Italy: +0.6% (+0.9%)
7. Netherlands: +0.6% (+1.2%)
8. Brazil: +1.2% (+1.5%)
9. Mexico: +1.7% (+1.6%)
10. Argentina: +2% (+2%)
11. Canada: +1.5% (+1.5%)

Americas & Europe GDP 2022

1. United States – $25 trillion
2. United Kingdom – $3.1 trillion
3. Russia – $2.1 trillion
4. Germany – $4 trillion
5. France – $2.7 trillion
6. Italy – $1.9 trillion
7. Netherlands –  $990 billion
8. Brazil – $1.8 trillion
9. Mexico – $1.7 trillion
10. Argentina – $630 billion
11. Canada – $2.2 trillion

Asia-Pacific GDP Growth in 2023 (2024)

1. China: +5.2% (+4.5%)
2. Japan: +1.8% (+0.9%)
3. India: +6.1% (+6.8%)
4. South Korea: +1.7% (+2.6%)
5. Indonesia: +4.8% (+5.1%)
6. Thailand: +3.7% (+3.6%)
7. Malaysia: +4.4% (+4.9%)
8. Philippines: +5% (+6%)
9. Australia: +1.6% (+1.7%)

Asia-Pacific GDP 2022

1. China – $18.3 trillion
2. Japan – $4.3 trillion
3. India – $3.4 trillion
4. South Korea – $1.7 trillion
5. Indonesia – $1.2 trillion
6. Thailand – $543 billion
7. Malaysia – $434 billion
8. Philippines – $401 billion
9. Australia – $1.7 trillion

Selected Countries GDP

• Taiwan – $828 billion
• Switzerland – $807 billion
• Norway – $504 billion
• Vietnam – $413 billion
• New Zealand – $242 billion
• Qatar – $221 billion

Financial Centres GDP 

• United Arab Emirates – $503 billion
• Hong Kong – $368 billion
• Singapore – $423 billion
• Luxembourg – $82 billion

2) IMF 2022 / 2023 Global Outlook

1. Key Drivers – Global fight against inflation, Russia’s war in Ukraine, Resurgence of COVID-19 in China
   
2. Domestic Economic Strength –  Stronger-than-expected private consumption, Greater-than-anticipated fiscal support, Spending increased through savings as economies reopened, Business investment rose to meet demand
   
3. Supply Side – Easing bottlenecks & declining transportation costs reduced pressures on input prices, Energy markets have adjusted faster than expected
4. 2022 Q4 – Growth faded in in all major economies except United States. 
   
5. COVID-19 Deepens Slowdown in China – Economy slowed in Q4, Outbreaks in Beijing & densely populated areas, Renewed lockdown, Full-reopening in Jan 2023, Real estate contracts, Developer restructuring, Downward pressure on housing prices

Economy Upside Risks

1. Pent-up demand boost – Fueled by the stock of excess private savings from the pandemic fiscal support, Boost to consumption such as services & tourism, Pent-up demand could fuel stronger rebound in China
2. Faster disinflation – Easing labor market pressures in some advanced economies due to falling vacancies could cool wage inflation without increasing unemployment, Sharp fall in the prices of goods as consumers shift back to services could further push down inflation, could imply a “softer” landing with less monetary tightening. 

Economy Downside Risks

1. China’s recovery stalling – Still-low population immunity levels & insufficient hospital capacity, Real estate market remains a major source of vulnerability, Spillovers to the rest of the world would operate primarily through lower demand and potentially renewed supply chain problems
2. War in Ukraine escalating – Major source of vulnerability, particularly for Europe & lower-income countries. Gas prices for Europe as China demand picks up, With elevated food and fuel prices, social unrest may increase
3. Debt distress – High debt levels from the pandemic, lower growth, and higher borrowing costs exacerbates the vulnerability of economies, especially those with significant near-term dollar financing needs.  15% of low-income countries are estimated to be in debt distress, with an additional 45% at high risk of debt distress and about 25% of emerging market economies also at high risk.
4. Inflation persisting – Labor market tightness could translate into stronger-than-expected wage growth, Higher-than-expected oil, gas, & food prices from the war in Ukraine, Faster rebound in China’s growth could again raise headline inflation and pass through into underlying inflation. Such developments require an even tighter monetary policy.
5. Sudden financial market repricing – Unfavourable inflation data releases could trigger sudden repricing of assets and increase volatility in financial markets. Such movements could strain liquidity and the functioning of critical markets, with ripple effects on the real economy
6. Geopolitical fragmentation – War in Ukraine and the related international sanctions aimed at pressuring Russia to end hostilities are splitting the world economy into blocs and reinforcing earlier geopolitical tensions, such as US-China trade dispute.

IMF Policy Priorities

1. Securing global disinflation – To achieve a sustained reduction in inflation toward target levels
2. Containing the reemergence of COVID-19 – Coordinated efforts to boost vaccination & medicine access in countries where coverage remains low, Global push toward sequencing and sharing data 
3. Ensuring financial stability – Macro-prudential tools can be used to tackle pockets of elevated financial sector vulnerabilities)
4. Restoring debt sustainability – Lower growth & higher borrowing costs have raised public debt ratios
5. Supporting the vulnerable – Surge in global energy and food prices triggered a cost-of-living crisis 
6. Reinforcing supply – Supply-side policies could address the key structural factors impeding growth, Push for investment along the supply chain of green energy technologies would bolster energy security and help advance progress on the green transition 
7. Strengthen Multilateral Cooperation – Limit the risks stemming from geopolitical fragmentation to ensure cooperation.  More info below

Urgent Actions to Strengthen Multilateral Cooperation Needed

1. Restraining the pandemic
2. Addressing debt distress
3. Strengthening global trade
4. Using the global financial safety net
   Speeding the green transition

IMF World Economic Outlook 2023

About IMF

The IMF was established in 1944 in the aftermath of the Great Depression of the 1930s. 44 founding member countries sought to build a framework for international economic cooperation. Today, its membership embraces 190 countries, with staff drawn from 150 nations.  The IMF is governed by and accountable to those 190 countries that make up its near-global membership.

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