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IMF World Economic Outlook 2024: Global GDP to Grow +3.1% with +5.8% Inflation in 2024, United States +2.1% & China +4.6% in 2024, 4 Potential Risks – Commodity Price Spikes from Geopolitical & Weather Shocks, Tighter Monetary Policy to Tackle Core Inflation, Slowing Growth in China, Excessive Fiscal Consolidation
16th February 2024 | Hong Kong
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has released the IMF World Economic Outlook 2024 (Jan Update), providing key insights into global economy & GDP growth in 2024 & 2025. The IMF outlook for 2024 is resilient but slow, and likelihood of a hard landing receding as adverse supply shocks unwind. The global GDP growth is projected at +3.1% in 2024 and +3.2% in 2025. 2024 / 2025 Global Inflation Forecast: +5.8% / +4.4% (2023: 6.8%). 2024 key global drivers – Growth resilient in major economies, Inflation subsiding faster than expected, High borrowing costs is cooling demand, Fiscal policy amplifying economic divergences. The IMF World Economic Outlook 2024 also highlighted 4 potential risks – Commodity price spikes from geopolitical & weather shocks, Tighter monetary policy to tackle core inflation, Slowing growth in China, Excessive fiscal consolidation, and 5 potential upside – Inflation decreases, Slow withdrawal of fiscal support, Fast recovery in China, Artificial intelligence, Supply-side reforms. 2024 GDP forecast: United States +2.1%, UK +0.6%, China +4.6%, India +6.5%, Japan +0.9%, South Korea +2.3%, Indonesia +5%, Malaysia +4.3%, Thailand +3.4%, Australia +1.4%. See below for key findings & summary | View report here
“ Global GDP to Grow +3.1% with +5.8% Inflation in 2024, United States +2.1% & China +4.6% in 2024, 4 Potential Risks – Commodity Price Spikes from Geopolitical & Weather Shocks, Tighter Monetary Policy to Tackle Core Inflation, Slowing Growth in China, Excessive Fiscal Consolidation “
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IMF World Economic Outlook 2024
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has released the IMF World Economic Outlook 2024 (Jan Update), providing key insights into global economy & GDP growth in 2024 & 2025. View report here
IMF World Economic Outlook 2024
2024 / 2025 GDP Growth Forecast:
- Global: +3.1% / +3.2%
- Advanced Economies: +1.5% / +1.8%
- Emerging Market and Developing Economies: +4.1% / +4.2%
2024 / 2025 Global Inflation Forecast: +5.8% / +4.4% (2023: 6.8%)
2024 / 2025 GDP Growth forecast in Americas:
- United States: +2.1% / +1.7%
- Canada: +1.4 / +2.3%
- Brazil: +1.7% / +1.9%
- Mexico: +2.7% / +1.5%
2024 / 2025 GDP Growth forecast in Europe:
- United Kingdom: +0.6% / +1.6%
- Germany: +0.5% / +1.6%
- France: +1% / +1.7%
- Italy: +0.7% / +1.1%
- Spain: +1.5% / +2.1%
- Netherlands: +0.7% / +1.3%
- Russia: +2.6% / +1.1%
2024 / 2025 GDP Growth Forecast in APAC:
- China: +4.6% / +4.1%
- India: +6.5% / +6.5%
- Japan: +0.9% / +0.8%
- South Korea: +2.3% / +2.3%
- Indonesia: +5% / +5%
- Malaysia: +4.3% / +4.4%
- Thailand: +4.4% / +2%
- Philippines: +6% / +6.1%
- Australia: +1.4% / +2.1%
Top 10 Economies in the World (GDP):
- United States – $25.4 trillion
- China – $17.7 trillion
- Japan – $5.06 trillion
- Germany – $4.2 trillion
- India – $3.2 trillion
- United Kingdom – $3.2 trillion
- France – $2.9 trillion
- Italy -$2.1 trillion
- Canada – $2 trillion
- South Korea – $1.8 trillion
Top 15 Economies in Asia-Pacific (GDP):
- China – $17.7 trillion
- Japan – $5.06 trillion
- India – $3.2 trillion
- South Korea – $1.8 trillion
- Australia – $1.54 trillion
- Indonesia – $1.19 trillion
- Taiwan – $775 billion
- Thailand – $505 billion
- Bangladesh – $416 billion
- Singapore – $397 billion
- Philippines – $394 billion
- Malaysia – $373 billion
- Hong Kong – $368 billion
- Vietnam – $366 billion
- Pakistan – $348 billion
IMF World Economic Outlook 2024 – January Update
1) 2024 Global Economy
- Global GDP – To increase to +3.1% in 2024 (2023: 3.1%), and +3.2% in 2025
- Global inflation – To decrease to +5.8% in 2023 (2023: +6.8%), and +4.4% in 2024
- 2024 Outlook – Resilient but slow, Likelihood of a hard landing receding as adverse supply shocks unwind
- Potential upside – Inflation decreases, Slow withdrawal of fiscal support, Fast recovery in China, Artificial intelligence, Supply-side reforms
- Potential risks – Commodity price spikes from geopolitical & weather shocks, Tighter monetary policy to tackle core inflation, Slowing growth in China, Excessive fiscal consolidation
- Recommendations for Central Banks – Managing the final descent of inflation, Rebuilding buffers to prepare for future shocks and achieving debt sustainability, Enabling durable medium-term growth, Strengthening resilience through multilateral cooperation
2) 2024 Key Global Drivers
- Growth resilient in major economies
- Inflation subsiding faster than expected
- High borrowing costs is cooling demand
- Fiscal policy amplifying economic divergences
3) 2024 Outlook Upside
- Outlook – Stronger global growth than expected could arise from several sources
- Inflation Decreases – Central banks to move forward with their policy-easing plans and could also contribute to improving business, consumer, and financial market sentiment, as well as raising growth.
- Slow withdrawal of fiscal support – Governments in major economies might withdraw fiscal policy support more slowly than necessary and than assumed during 2024–25, implying higher-than-projected global growth in the near term. Exacerbate inflation and, with elevated public debt, result in higher borrowing costs and a more disruptive policy adjustment, with a negative impact on global growth later on
- Fast recovery in China – Additional property sector–related reforms including faster restructuring of insolvent property developers while protecting home buyers’ interests – or larger-than-expected fiscal support could boost consumer confidence, bolster private demand, and generate positive cross-border growth spillovers.
- Artificial intelligence – Artificial intelligence could boost workers’ productivity and incomes. Advanced economies may experience benefits from artificial intelligence sooner than emerging market and developing economies, largely because their employment structures are more focused on cognitive-intensive roles.
- Supply-side reforms – For emerging market and developing economies with constrained policy environments, faster progress on implementing supply-enhancing reforms could result in greater-than-expected domestic and foreign investment and productivity and faster convergence to higher income levels.
4) 2024 Outlook Risks
- Commodity price spikes from geopolitical & weather shocks – The conflict in Gaza and Israel could escalate further into the wider region, which produces about 35% of the world’s oil exports and 14% of its gas exports. Continued attacks in the Red Sea – through which 11% of global trade flows – and the ongoing war in Ukraine risk generating fresh adverse supply shocks to the global recovery, with spikes in food, energy, and transportation costs. Container shipping costs have already sharply increased, and the situation in the Middle East remains volatile. Further geo-economic fragmentation could also constrain the cross-border flow of commodities, causing additional price volatility. More extreme weather shocks, including floods and drought, could, together with the El Niño phenomenon, also cause food price spikes, exacerbate food insecurity, and jeopardize the global disinflation process.
- Tighter monetary policy to tackle core inflation – A slower-than-expected decline in core inflation in major economies due, for example, to persistent labor market tightness and renewed tensions in supply chains could trigger a rise in interest rate expectations and a fall in asset prices, as in early 2023. Such developments could increase financial stability risks, tighten global financial conditions, trigger flight-to-safety capital flows, and strengthen the US dollar, with adverse consequences for trade and growth.
- Slowing growth in China – Absent a comprehensive restructuring policy package for the troubled property sector, real estate investment could drop more than expected, and for longer, with negative implications for domestic growth and trading partners. Unintended fiscal tightening in response to local government financing constraints is also possible, as is reduced household consumption in a context of subdued confidence.
- Excessive fiscal consolidation: Fiscal consolidation is necessary in many economies to deal with rising debt ratios. But an excessively sharp shift to tax hikes and spending cuts, beyond what is envisaged, could result in slower-than-expected growth in the near term. Adverse market reactions could pressure some countries that lack a credible medium-term consolidation plan or face a risk of debt distress to undertake harsh adjustments. In low-income countries and emerging market economies, the risk of debt distress remains elevated, constraining scope for necessary growth-enhancing investments.
5) Central Bank policies recommendations / priorities:
- Managing the final descent of inflation
- Rebuilding buffers to prepare for future shocks and achieving debt sustainability
- Enabling durable medium-term growth
- Strengthening resilience through multilateral cooperation
IMF World Economic Outlook 2024 Forecast – January Update
The IMF World Economic Outlook 2024 (Jan Update), providing key insights into global economy & GDP growth in 2024 & 2025. View report here
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