International Monetary Fund APAC Outlook 2024: APAC GDP +4.5% in 2024 & +4.3% in 2025, Top 5 Largest APAC Countries China +4.6%, Japan +0.9%, India +6.8%, Australia +1.5%, South Korea +2.3%, Financial Centres Outlook Hong Kong +2.9%, Singapore +2.1%, Top 5 APAC Countries GDP China $17.9 Trillion, Japan $4.2 Trillion, India $3.4 Trillion, Australia $1.6 Trillion, South Korea $1.6 Trillion

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International Monetary Fund APAC Outlook 2024: APAC GDP +4.5% in 2024 & +4.3% in 2025, Top 5 Largest APAC Countries China +4.6%, Japan +0.9%, India +6.8%, Australia +1.5%, South Korea +2.3%, Financial Centres Outlook Hong Kong +2.9%, Singapore +2.1%, Top 5 APAC Countries GDP China $17.9 Trillion, Japan $4.2 Trillion, India $3.4 Trillion, Australia $1.6 Trillion, South Korea $1.6 Trillion

3rd May 2024 | Hong Kong

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has released the IMF APAC Outlook 2024, providing key insights into Asia-Pacific economies and GDP growth forecast for 2024 and 2025.  Asia-Pacific economies are expected to grow +4.5% in 2024 and +4.3% in 2025 (2023: +5%).  Top 5 Largest APAC Countries Outlook (2024 GDP Forecast) – China +4.6%, Japan +0.9%, India +6.8%, Australia +1.5%, South Korea +2.3%.  Financial Centres Outlook (2024 GDP Forecast) – Hong Kong +2.9%, Singapore +2.1%.  Top 10 Fastest Growing (2024 GDP Forecast) – India +6.8%, Mongolia +6.5%, Philippines +6.2%, Cambodia +6%, Vietnam +5.8%.  Top 5 APAC Countries (GDP) – China $17.9 trillion, Japan $4.2 trillion, India $3.4 trillion, Australia $1.6 trillion, South Korea $1.6 trillion.  Top 5 Southeast Asia Countries (GDP) – Singapore $466 billion, Indonesia $1.3 trillion, Thailand $495 billion, Malaysia $407 billion, Philippines $404 billion.  Financial Centres GDP – Hong Kong $359 billion, Singapore $466 billion.  Key IMF APAC Outlook 2024 – Increased APAC regional growth forecast by 0.3% to +4.5%, Revision reflects upgrades for China, India remains an important driver, Robust private consumption will remain the main growth driver in Asia.  China Property Sector Correction – Deepening of the property sector downturn marred the rebound after the country’s post-COVID reopening in early 2023, China economy grew by +5.2% in 2023, more than previously forecast.  Key Insights – Uneven inflation outcomes, China property sector correction, China policy options, Global & Asia trade risks.  See below for key findings & summary | View report here:

“ APAC GDP +4.5% in 2024 & +4.3% in 2025, Top 5 Largest APAC Countries China +4.6%, Japan +0.9%, India +6.8%, Australia +1.5%, South Korea +2.3%, Financial Centres Outlook Hong Kong +2.9%, Singapore +2.1%, Top 5 APAC Countries GDP China $17.9 Trillion, Japan $4.2 Trillion, India $3.4 Trillion, Australia $1.6 Trillion, South Korea $1.6 Trillion “

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International Monetary Fund APAC Outlook 2024: APAC GDP +4.5% in 2024 & +4.3% in 2025, Top 5 Largest APAC Countries China +4.6%, Japan +0.9%, India +6.8%, Australia +1.5%, South Korea +2.3%, Financial Centres Outlook Hong Kong +2.9%, Singapore +2.1%, Top 5 APAC Countries GDP China $17.9 Trillion, Japan $4.2 Trillion, India $3.4 Trillion, Australia $1.6 Trillion, South Korea $1.6 Trillion

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has released the IMF APAC Outlook 2024, providing key insights into Asia-Pacific economies and GDP growth forecast for 2024 and 2025.  See below for key findings & summary | View report here:

Summary

1. 2023 GDP: +5%
2. 2024 GDP Forecast: +4.5%
3. 2025 GDP Forecast: +4.3%
4. Top 5 Largest APAC Countries Outlook (2024 GDP Forecast) – China +4.6%, Japan +0.9%, India +6.8%, Australia +1.5%, South Korea +2.3%
5. Financial Centres Outlook (2024 GDP Forecast) – Hong Kong +2.9%, Singapore +2.1%
6. Top 10 Fastest Growing (2024 GDP Forecast) – India +6.8%, Mongolia +6.5%, Philippines +6.2%, Cambodia +6%, Vietnam +5.8%
7. Top 5 APAC Countries (GDP) – China $17.9 trillion, Japan $4.2 trillion, India $3.4 trillion, Australia $1.6 trillion, South Korea $1.6 trillion
8. Top 5 Southeast Asia Countries (GDP) – Singapore $466 billion, Indonesia $1.3 trillion, Thailand $495 billion, Malaysia $407 billion, Philippines $404 billion
9. Financial Centres GDP – Hong Kong $359 billion, Singapore $466 billion
10. Key IMF APAC Outlook 2024 – Increased APAC regional growth forecast by 0.3% to +4.5%, Revision reflects upgrades for China, India remains an important driver, Robust private consumption will remain the main growth driver in Asia
11. China Property Sector Correction – Deepening of the property sector downturn marred the rebound after the country’s post-COVID reopening in early 2023, China economy grew by +5.2% in 2023, more than previously forecast
12. Key Insights – Uneven inflation outcomes, China property sector correction, China policy options, Global & Asia trade risks

International Monetary Fund APAC Outlook 2024

1) APAC GDP Outlook

APAC GDP Outlook

• 2023 GDP: +5%
• 2024 GDP Forecast: +4.5%
• 2025 GDP Forecast: +4.3%

2024 Top 5 Largest APAC Countries Outlook (GDP):

1. China: +4.6%
2. Japan: +0.9%
3. India: +6.8%
4. Australia: +1.5%
5. South Korea: +2.3%

2024 Financial Centres Outlook (GDP):

• Hong Kong: +2.9%
• Singapore: +2.1%

2024 APAC Countries Outlook:

• China: +4.6%
• Hong Kong: +2.9%
• Japan: +0.9%
• South Korea: +2.3%
• India: +6.8%
• Singapore: +2.1%
• Indonesia: +5%
• Thailand: +2.7%
• Malaysia: +4.4%
• Philippines: +6.2%
• Vietnam: +5.8%
• Australia: +1.5%
• New Zealand: +1%
• Bangladesh: +5.7%
• Mongolia: +6.5%
• Nepal: +3.1%
• Cambodia: +6%
• Lao: +4%
• Myanmar: +1.5%
• Brunei: +2.4%

Top 10 Fastest Growing (2024 GDP Forecast):

1. India: +6.8%
2. Mongolia: +6.5%
3. Philippines: +6.2%
4. Cambodia: +6%
5. Vietnam: +5.8%
6. Bangladesh: +5.7%
7. Indonesia: +5%
8. China: +4.6%
9. Malaysia: +4.4%
10. Lao: +4%

2025 APAC Countries Outlook (GDP):

• China: +4.1%
• Hong Kong: +2.7%
• Japan: +1%
• South Korea: +2.3%
• India: +6.5%
• Singapore: +2.3%
• Indonesia: +5.1%
• Thailand: +2.9%
• Malaysia: +4.4%
• Philippines: +6.2%
• Vietnam: +6.5%
• Australia: +2%
• New Zealand: +2%
• Bangladesh: +6.6%
• Mongolia: +6%
• Nepal: +5.2%
• Cambodia: +6.1%
• Lao: +4%
• Myanmar: +2%
• Brunei: +2.5%

Top 10 Fastest Growing (2025 Forecast):

1. Bangladesh: +6.6%
2. India: +6.5%
3. Vietnam: +6.5%
4. Philippines: +6.2%
5. Cambodia: +6.1%
6. Mongolia: +6%
7. Nepal: +5.2%
8. Indonesia: +5.1%
9. Malaysia: +4.4%
10. China: +4.1%

2) 2024 World Bank GDP Data (2022 GDP)

Top 15 APAC Countries (GDP)

1. China – $17.9 trillion
2. Japan – $4.2 trillion
3. India – $3.4 trillion
4. Australia – $1.6 trillion
5. South Korea – $1.6 trillion
6. Indonesia – $1.3 trillion
7. Thailand – $495 billion
8. Singapore – $466 billion
9. Bangladesh – $460 billion
10. Vietnam – $408 billion
11. Malaysia – $407 billion
12. Philippines – $404 billion
13. Hong Kong – $359 billion
14. New Zealand – $248 billion
15. Myanmar – $62 billion

North Asia

• China – $17.9 trillion
• Hong Kong – $359 billion
• Japan – $4.2 trillion
• South Korea – $1.6 trillion
• Mongolia – $17 billion

South Asia

• India – $3.4 trillion
• Bangladesh – $460 billion
• Nepal – $40 billion

Southeast Asia

• Singapore – $466 billion
• Indonesia – $1.3 trillion
• Thailand – $495 billion
• Malaysia – $407 billion
• Philippines – $404 billion
• Vietnam – $408 billion
• Myanmar – $62 billion
• Cambodia – $29 billion
• Lao – $15 billion
• Brunei – $16 billion

Oceania

• Australia – $1.6 trillion
• New Zealand – $248 billion

3) IMF APAC Outlook 2024

Key Insights:

1. Increased APAC regional growth forecast by +0.3% from 4.2% to 4.5% for 2024
2. Growth forecast for 2025 is unchanged at 4.3%
3. Revision reflects upgrades for China, where we expect policy stimulus to provide support
4. India, where public investment remains an important driver, making it the world’s fastest-growing major economy
5. Robust private consumption will remain the main growth driver in Asia’s other emerging market economies
6. Global disinflation and the prospect of lower central bank interest rates have made a soft landing more likely

A) Uneven inflation outcomes:

• Inflation higher than target – New Zealand, Australia, South Korea
• Inflation near target – India, Japan, Philippines, Indonesia, Vietnam
• Inflation below target – Thailand
• No inflation target – China, Hong Kong, Singapore, Malaysia 

B) China property sector correction:

1. Deepening of the property sector downturn marred the rebound after the country’s post-COVID reopening in early 2023
2. China economy grew by +5.2% in 2023, more than previously forecast
3. Raised growth estimate for 2024 by 0.4% to 4.6%
4. Key risks for Asia’s economy remains a protracted property sector correction in China that would weaken demand and could increase the odds of sustained deflation
5. China direct trade spillovers – China’s falling export prices that put pressure on the profit margins of the country’s competitors: recent IMF staff analysis shows that Chinese export price declines reduce both export prices and quantities of other Asian economies, especially those with a similar export structure.

C) China policy options that will affect itself & region:

1. A policy package that accelerates the exit of nonviable property developers, promotes the completion of housing projects, and manages debt risks of local governments would boost confidence, support demand, and help the economy reflate—and therefore improve growth prospects for both China and neighboring countries. 
2. By contrast, policies that boost supply—such as investment subsidies to specific companies and industries—would worsen overcapacity, reinforce deflationary pressures, and potentially provoke trade frictions.

D) Global & Asia trade risks:

1. Reinforcing frictions would be a dismal outcome for a region that has benefitted so much from trade openness
2. One outcome is an inefficient lengthening of supply chains, as trade is channeled through third countries. 
3. Many of Asia economies are deeply integrated into global supply chains and benefit greatly from trade.
4. Policymakers should be cautious to not aggravate trade frictions themselves
5. Beyond the short term, population aging, slowing productivity growth, and new technologies such as artificial intelligence confront policymakers in Asia with important challenges. 
6. Common need to invest in capital, digital infrastructure, and workforce skills, to preserve Asia’s role as growth engine of the world economy.

4) International Monetary Fund APAC Outlook 2024

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