UBS Global Real Estate Bubble Index 2024: Top 3 Bubble Risks Miami, Tokyo & Zurich, Top 5 Price Increase in Last 12 Months Dubai +16.8%, Warsaw +16.2%, Miami +7.4%, Amsterdam +6.9% & Tokyo +5.6%, Top 5 Price Decrease in Last 12 Months Hong Kong -12.5%, Paris -10.4%, Munich -4.9%, Stockholm -4.2% & Frankfurt -2.7%, Most Work years Required to Buy 60 sqm (650 sq ft) Flat Near City Centre is Hong Kong in 22 Years, Most Rental Years Required to Fully Pay for Flat is Zurich in 41 Years
25th October 2024 | Hong Kong
UBS has released the UBS Global Real Estate Bubble Index 2024, providing key insights into real estate bubble risk & price level in 25 cities globally. The Top 3 Bubble Risks – Miami, Tokyo, Zurich. Elevated Bubble Risks – Los Angeles, Toronto, Geneva. Moderate Bubble Risks – Amsterdam, Sydney, Boston, Vancouver, Frankfurt, Hong Kong, Tel Aviv, Dubai, Singapore, Madrid, Munich. Low Bubble Risks – San Francisco, London, New York, Paris, Stockholm, Warsaw, Milan, Sao Paulo. Top 5 Real house price growth in last 12 months – Dubai +16.8%, Warsaw +16.2%, Miami +7.4%, Amsterdam +6.9%, Tokyo +5.6%. Top 5 Real house price decrease in last 12 months – Hong Kong -12.5%, Paris -10.4%, Munich -4.9%, Stockholm -4.2%, Frankfurt -2.7%. Top 5 Most no. of work years required for skilled service worker to buy a 60 sqm (650 sq ft) flat near city centre – Hong Kong 22 years, Tokyo 14 years, Paris 13 years, London 12 years, Tel Aviv 11 years. Top 5 most no. of rental years required for skilled service worker to fully pay for flat – Zurich 41 years, Munich 40 years, Tel Aviv 40 years, Geneva 39 years, Hong Kong 39 years. See below for key findings & summary | View report here
“ UBS Global Real Estate Bubble Index 2024: Top 3 Bubble Risks Miami, Tokyo & Zurich, Top 5 Price Increase in Last 12 Months Dubai +16.8%, Warsaw +16.2%, Miami +7.4%, Amsterdam +6.9% & Tokyo +5.6%, Top 5 Price Decrease in Last 12 Months Hong Kong -12.5%, Paris -10.4%, Munich -4.9%, Stockholm -4.2% & Frankfurt -2.7%, Most Work years Required to Buy 60 sqm (650 sq ft) Flat Near City Centre is Hong Kong in 22 Years, Most Rental Years Required to Fully Pay for Flat is Zurich in 41 Years “
UBS Global Real Estate Bubble Index 2024: Top 3 Bubble Risks Miami, Tokyo & Zurich, Top 5 Price Increase in Last 12 Months Dubai +16.8%, Warsaw +16.2%, Miami +7.4%, Amsterdam +6.9% & Tokyo +5.6%, Top 5 Price Decrease in Last 12 Months Hong Kong -12.5%, Paris -10.4%, Munich -4.9%, Stockholm -4.2% & Frankfurt -2.7%, Most Work years Required to Buy 60 sqm (650 sq ft) Flat Near City Centre is Hong Kong in 22 Years, Most Rental Years Required to Fully Pay for Flat is Zurich in 41 Years
UBS has released the UBS Global Real Estate Bubble Index 2024, providing key insights into real estate bubble risk & price level in 25 cities globally. See below for key findings & summary | View report here
UBS Global Real Estate Bubble Index
Summary
- Top 3 Bubble Risks – Miami, Tokyo, Zurich
- Elevated Bubble Risks – Los Angeles, Toronto, Geneva
- Moderate Bubble Risks – Amsterdam, Sydney, Boston, Vancouver, Frankfurt, Hong Kong, Tel Aviv, Dubai, Singapore, Madrid, Munich
- Low Bubble Risks – San Francisco, London, New York, Paris, Stockholm, Warsaw, Milan, Sao Paulo
- Top 5 Real house price growth in last 12 months – Dubai +16.8%, Warsaw +16.2%, Miami +7.4%, Amsterdam +6.9%, Tokyo +5.6%
- Top 5 Real house price decrease in last 12 months – Hong Kong -12.5%, Paris -10.4%, Munich -4.9%, Stockholm -4.2%, Frankfurt -2.7%
- Top 5 Most no. of work years required for skilled service worker to buy a 60 sqm (650 sq ft) flat near city centre – Hong Kong 22 years, Tokyo 14 years, Paris 13 years, London 12 years, Tel Aviv 11 years
- Top 5 most no. of rental years required for skilled service worker to fully pay for flat – Zurich 41 years, Munich 40 years, Tel Aviv 40 years, Geneva 39 years, Hong Kong 39 years
UBS Global Real Estate Bubble Index
1) Bubble Index
- Miami – 1.79
- Tokyo – 1.67
- Zurich – 1.51
- Los Angeles – 1.17
- Toronto – 1.03
- Geneva – 1
- Amsterdam – 0.98
- Sydney – 0.78
- Boston – 0.78
- Vancouver – 0.77
- Frankfurt – 0.75
- Hong Kong – 0.74
- Tel Aviv – 0.69
- Dubai – 0.64
- Singapore – 0.59
- Madrid – 0.56
- Munich – 0.54
- San Francisco – 0.48
- London – 0.41
- New York – 0.37
- Paris – 0.35
- Stockholm – 0.32
- Warsaw – 0.23
- Milan – 0.2
- Sao Paulo – 0.04
Bubble:
- Miami – 1.79
- Tokyo – 1.67
- Zurich – 1.51
Elevated:
- Los Angeles – 1.17
- Toronto – 1.03
- Geneva – 1
Moderate:
- Amsterdam – 0.98
- Sydney – 0.78
- Boston – 0.78
- Vancouver – 0.77
- Frankfurt – 0.75
- Hong Kong – 0.74
- Tel Aviv – 0.69
- Dubai – 0.64
- Singapore – 0.59
- Madrid – 0.56
- Munich – 0.54
Low:
- San Francisco – 0.48
- London – 0.41
- New York – 0.37
- Paris – 0.35
- Stockholm – 0.32
- Warsaw – 0.23
- Milan – 0.2
- Sao Paulo – 0.04
Price bubbles are a recurring phenomenon in property markets. The term “bubble” refers to a substantial and sustained mispricing of an asset, the existence of which cannot be proved unless it bursts. But historical data reveals patterns of property market excesses. Typical signs include a decoupling of prices from local incomes and rents, and imbalances in the real economy, such as excessive lending and construction activity. The UBS Global Real Estate Bubble Index gauges the risk of a property bubble on the basis of such patterns. The index does not predict whether and when a correction will set in. A change in macroeconomic momentum, a shift in investor sentiment, or a major supply increase could trigger a decline in house prices.
2) Key Observations
- Reshuffling of risks – Imbalances have declined in Europe, remained stable in Asia-Pacific, and increased in the US. While Miami tops the bubble risk ranking this year, Dubai has recorded the highest risk increase since mid-2023.
- Bursting bubbles – Where high imbalances accumulated, real house prices have shed 20% since mid-2021. This compares to a correction of 2% on average for all other cities in the study.
- Correction over – Average real house prices increased by 2% compared to last summer. But, price changes were uneven: While real prices in Paris and Hong Kong fell by 10%, Warsaw and Dubai recorded double- digit increases.
- Housing shortage – Building permits have been declining in most cities amid deteriorating financing conditions. Real rents have accelerated in a majority of cities and increased by more than 5% on average over the last two years.
- Market freeze – Buyers can afford 40% less living space than in 2021, before interest rates increased. As a result, fewer properties are being bought, apparent in sharply lower growth of outstanding mortgage volumes.
- The tide is turning – With financing costs set to become more attractive, housing demand is bottoming out and prices should accelerate. Economic growth will be crucial in determining the price dynamics.
3) Real house price growth in last 12 months
- Dubai: +16.8%
- Warsaw: +16.2%
- Miami: +7.4%
- Amsterdam: +6.9%
- Tokyo: +5.6%
- Vancouver: +5.5%
- Madrid: +5.3%
- Singapore: +3.2%
- Zurich: +2.4%
- Sydney: +1.7%
- Milan: +1.7%
- São Paulo: +1.4%
- Los Angeles: +1.4%
- Tel Aviv: +1.3%
- Boston: +1.1%
- New York: +0.5%
- San Francisco: +0.3%
- Geneva: -0.2%
- Toronto: -0.7%
- London: -1.4%
- Frankfurt: -2.7%
- Stockholm: -4.2%
- Munich: -4.9%
- Paris: -10.4%
- Hong Kong: -12.5%
4) No. of work years required for skilled service worker to buy a 60 sqm (650 sq ft) flat near city centre
- Hong Kong – 22 years
- Tokyo – 14 years
- Paris – 13 years
- London – 12 years
- Tel Aviv – 11 years
- Singapore – 10 years
- Sydney – 9 years
- Munich – 8 years
- São Paulo – 8 years
- New York – 8 years
- Zurich – 8 years
- Vancouver – 8 years
- Geneva – 7 years
- Amsterdam – 7 years
- Warsaw – 7 years
- Milan – 7 years
- Los Angeles – 7 years
- Frankfurt – 6 years
- Dubai – 6 years
- Boston – 6 years
- Toronto – 6 years
- Stockholm – 5 years
- Madrid – 5 years
- Miami – 5 years
- San Francisco – 5 years
5) No. of rental years required for skilled service worker to fully pay for flat
- Zurich – 41 years
- Munich – 40 years
- Tel Aviv – 40 years
- Geneva – 39 years
- Hong Kong – 39 years
- Frankfurt – 36 years
- Tokyo – 35 years
- Sydney – 32 years
- London – 31 years
- Paris – 28 years
- Amsterdam – 28 years
- Vancouver – 28 years
- Stockholm – 26 years
- Milan – 26 years
- Singapore – 25 years
- Toronto – 25 years
- Boston – 22 years
- Los Angeles – 22 years
- Warsaw – 21 years
- New York – 20 years
- Madrid – 19 years
- San Francisco – 19 years
- São Paulo – 18 years
- Miami – 15 years
- Dubai – 15 years
Methodology
The UBS Global Real Estate Bubble Index traces the fundamental valuation of owner-occupied housing markets and the valuation of cities in relation to their country and economic distortions (such as lending and building booms).
About UBS
UBS is a leading and truly global wealth manager and the leading universal bank in Switzerland. It also provides diversified asset management solutions and focused investment banking capabilities. With the acquisition of Credit Suisse, UBS manages 5.9 trillion dollars of invested assets as per second quarter 2024. UBS helps clients achieve their financial goals through personalized advice, solutions and products. Headquartered in Zurich, Switzerland, the firm is operating in more than 50 markets around the globe. UBS Group shares are listed on the SIX Swiss Exchange and the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE).
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