Goldman Sachs, United States
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Goldman Sachs Global Insurance Survey 2025: Top 5 Returns are Private Credit, United States Equities, Private Equity, Private Equity Secondaries, High Yield Debt, Top 5 Risks are Inflation, Economic Slowdown / Recession in the United States, Credit & Equity Market Volatility, Geopolitical Tensions, Tariffs / Trade Disputes, 76% Expect Recession in United States in Next 1 to 5 Years, 62% to Increase Private Assets Allocation, Top 2 Reasons to Invest in Private Credit High Expected Returns 71% & Diversification 20%, Expected Largest Portfolio Return on Artificial Intelligence (AI) is Infrastructure / Data Centers, 58% with Dedicated ESG Investments in Portfolio, Top 4 Reasons for Sustainability Considerations in Portfolio – Meet Stakeholder Considerations, Regulatory Requirements, Risk Mitigation, Enhance Risk-Adjusted Returns

17th April 2025 | Hong Kong

Goldman Sachs Asset Management has released the Global Insurance Survey 2025, providing key insights on investment outlook & portfolio allocation from 405 CIOs, CFOs, senior investment professionals & senior finance managers with $14 trillion combined assets.  For 2025, the Top 5 Highest expected total return for asset class in next 12 months – Private Credit, United States Equities, Private Equity, Private Equity Secondaries, High Yield Debt.  Top 5 Macroeconomic Risks to investment portfolio – Inflation, Economic Slowdown / Recession in the United States, Credit & Equity Market Volatility, Geopolitical Tensions, Tariffs / Trade Disputes.  Expects Recession in United States in next 1 to 5 years – 76%.  Expected S&P 500 Index 5% to 10% Return in 2025 – 50% of respondents.  Expected Fed Funds Rate of 3.76% to 4.25% range at the end of 2025 – 66% of respondents.  On Investment Opportunities – Improving 18% / Staying the same 44% / Getting worse 39%.  Increase Private Assets allocation in next 12 months – 62%.  Current Credit Cycle – Early Stage (Improving Credit Quality) 0%, Middle Stage (Stable Credit Quality) 55%, Late Stage (Deteriorating Credit Quality) 45%.  Net change in fixed income in next 12 months – Duration +27%, Credit Risk +21%, Liquidity risk +14%, Equity risk-1%.  Top 5 Net increase in asset class in next 12 months – Private Credit +56%, Investment Grade Private Debt +37%, Asset-Based Finance +35%, Infrastructure Debt +27%, Private Equity Secondaries +24%.  Top 2 Reasons to invest in Private Credit – High Expected Returns 71%, Diversification 20%.  Private Credit deals covenants (conditions) expectations in 2025 – Tighten 22%, No change 46%, Loosen 32%.  Credit spread expectations in 2025 – Tighten 14%, No change 27%, Widen 59%.  Private Credit investment preference (Fixed vs Floating) – Fixed Rate 58%, No Preference 20%, Floating 22%.  Expected Largest Portfolio Return on Artificial Intelligence (AI) – Infrastructure / Data Centers.  Company Using Artificial Intelligence (AI) – Yes 48% / Considering 42%.  Top 4 Reasons to use Artificial Intelligence (AI) – Reducing Operational Costs 81%, Insurance Risk Underwriting 44%, Marketing / Client Acquisition 36%, Evaluating Investments 29%.  ESG a factor in investment by Region (Investors) – Americas 59%, APAC 95%, EMEA 99%.  Dedicated ESG investments in portfolio – 58%.  Top 4 Reasons for sustainability considerations in portfolio – Meet Stakeholder Considerations, Regulatory Requirements, Risk Mitigation, Enhance Risk-Adjusted Returns.  Private Capital Investments in Insurance Industry – Accelerate 66% / Same 30% / Decelerate 4%.  Top Primary M&A Driver for Insurance Company – For Scale / Synergies / Operational Efficiencies.  See below for key findings & summary | View report here:

“ Goldman Sachs Global Insurance Survey 2025: Top 5 Returns are Private Credit, United States Equities, Private Equity, Private Equity Secondaries, High Yield Debt, Top 5 Risks are Inflation, Economic Slowdown / Recession in the United States, Credit & Equity Market Volatility, Geopolitical Tensions, Tariffs / Trade Disputes, 76% Expect Recession in United States in Next 1 to 5 Years, 62% to Increase Private Assets Allocation, Top 2 Reasons to Invest in Private Credit High Expected Returns 71% & Diversification 20%, Expected Largest Portfolio Return on Artificial Intelligence (AI) is Infrastructure / Data Centers, 58% with Dedicated ESG Investments in Portfolio, Top 4 Reasons for Sustainability Considerations in Portfolio – Meet Stakeholder Considerations, Regulatory Requirements, Risk Mitigation, Enhance Risk-Adjusted Returns “

 



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Goldman Sachs Global Insurance Survey 2025: Top 5 Returns are Private Credit, United States Equities, Private Equity, Private Equity Secondaries, High Yield Debt, Top 5 Risks are Inflation, Economic Slowdown / Recession in the United States, Credit & Equity Market Volatility, Geopolitical Tensions, Tariffs / Trade Disputes, 76% Expect Recession in United States in Next 1 to 5 Years, 62% to Increase Private Assets Allocation, Top 2 Reasons to Invest in Private Credit High Expected Returns 71% & Diversification 20%, Expected Largest Portfolio Return on Artificial Intelligence (AI) is Infrastructure / Data Centers, 58% with Dedicated ESG Investments in Portfolio, Top 4 Reasons for Sustainability Considerations in Portfolio – Meet Stakeholder Considerations, Regulatory Requirements, Risk Mitigation, Enhance Risk-Adjusted Returns

Goldman Sachs, United States

Goldman Sachs Asset Management has released the Global Insurance Survey 2025, providing key insights on investment outlook & portfolio allocation from 405 CIOs, CFOs, senior investment professionals & senior finance managers with $14 trillion combined assets.  See below for key findings & summary | View report here:

 

 

Goldman Sachs Global Insurance Survey 2025

Summary

  1. Total Respondents – 405 CIOs, CFOs, senior investment professionals & senior finance managers with $14 trillion AUM
  2. Top 5 Highest expected total return for asset class in next 12 months – Private Credit, United States Equities, Private Equity, Private Equity Secondaries, High Yield Debt
  3. Top 5 Macroeconomic Risks to investment portfolio – Inflation, Economic Slowdown / Recession in the United States, Credit & Equity Market Volatility, Geopolitical Tensions, Tariffs / Trade Disputes
  4. Expects Recession in United States in next 1 to 5 years – 76%
  5. Expected S&P 500 Index 5% to 10% Return in 2025 – 50% of respondents
  6. Expected Fed Funds Rate of 3.76% to 4.25% range at the end of 2025 – 66% of respondents
  7. On Investment Opportunities – Improving 18% / Staying the same 44% / Getting worse 39%
  8. Increase Private Assets allocation in next 12 months – 62%
  9. Current Credit Cycle – Early Stage (Improving Credit Quality) 0%, Middle Stage (Stable Credit Quality) 55%, Late Stage (Deteriorating Credit Quality) 45%
  10. Net change in fixed income in next 12 months – Duration +27%, Credit Risk +21%, Liquidity risk +14%, Equity risk-1%
  11. Top 5 Net increase in asset class in next 12 months – Private Credit +56%, Investment Grade Private Debt +37%, Asset-Based Finance +35%, Infrastructure Debt +27%, Private Equity Secondaries +24%
  12. Top 2 Reasons to invest in Private Credit – High Expected Returns 71%, Diversification 20%
  13. Private Credit deals covenants (conditions) expectations in 2025 – Tighten 22%, No change 46%, Loosen 32%
  14. Credit spread expectations in 2025 – Tighten 14%, No change 27%, Widen 59%
  15. Private Credit investment preference (Fixed vs Floating) – Fixed Rate 58%, No Preference 20%, Floating 22%
  16. Expected Largest Portfolio Return on Artificial Intelligence (AI) – Infrastructure / Data Centers
  17. Company Using Artificial Intelligence (AI) – Yes 48% / Considering 42%
  18. Top 4 Reasons to use Artificial Intelligence (AI) – Reducing Operational Costs 81%, Insurance Risk Underwriting 44%, Marketing / Client Acquisition 36%, Evaluating Investments 29%
  19. ESG a factor in investment by Region (Investors) – Americas 59%, APAC 95%, EMEA 99%
  20. Dedicated ESG investments in portfolio – 58%
  21. Top 4 Reasons for sustainability considerations in portfolio – Meet Stakeholder Considerations, Regulatory Requirements, Risk Mitigation, Enhance Risk-Adjusted Returns
  22. Private Capital Investments in Insurance Industry – Accelerate 66% / Same 30% / Decelerate 4%
  23. Top Primary M&A Driver for Insurance Company – For Scale / Synergies / Operational Efficiencies

 

 

Goldman Sachs Global Insurance Survey 2025

Profile:

  • Total Respondents – 405
  • Total AUM – $14 trillion

Respondents – 405

  • CIOs & Senior Investment Professionals – 338
  • CFOs & Senior Finance Manager – 53
  • Dual role (CIO / CFO) – 14

Insurer Type:

  • Life – 43%
  • P&C / Non-Life – 29%
  • Multi-Line – 16%
  • Reinsurance – 5%
  • Health – 5%
  • Captive – 1%

Region:

  • Americas – 38%
  • EMEA – 38%
  • APAC – 20%

 

1) Investment Outlook

Expecting Recession in United States:

  • In 2025 – 1%
  • In next 1 to 3 years – 45%
  • In next 3 to 5 years – 31%
  • No recession in next 5 years – 22%

Top Macroeconomic Risk to investment portfolio:

  1. Inflation – 52%
  2. Economic Slowdown / Recession in the United States – 48%
  3. Credit & Equity Market Volatility – 47%
  4. Geopolitical Tensions – 43%
  5. Tariffs / Trade Disputes – 32%
  6. Economic Slowdown / Recession in Europe – 22%
  7. Monetary Tightening – 17%
  8. Deteriorating Liquidity Conditions – 16%
  9. Deflation – 7%
  10. Economic slowdown / recession in China – 7%

Expected S&P 500 Index Return in 2025:

  • More than +20% return – None from respondents
  • 10% to 20% return – 5%
  • 5% to 10% return – 50%
  • 0% to 5% return – 19%
  • -5% to 0% return – 6%
  • -10% to -5% return – 7%
  • More than -10% return – 3%

Expected Fed Funds Rate at the end of 2025:

  • Higher than 4.5% Fed Funds Rate – 1% of respondents
  • 4.26% to 4.5% – 13%
  • 4.01% to 4.25% – 32%
  • 3.76% to 4% – 34%
  • 3.5% to 3.75% – 18%
  • Lower than 3.5% – 1%

Expected 10-Year United States (US) Treasury Yield at the end of 2025:

  • 5.01% to 5.5% Yield – 9% of respondents
  • 4.5% to 5% – 32%
  • 4.01% to 4.5% – 44%
  • 3.5% to 4% – 14%
  • Lower than 3.5% – 1%

Expected Brent crude oil (USD / bbl) at the end of 2025:

  • $90 & above – 2%
  • $80 to $89 – 14%
  • $70 to $79 – 53%
  • $60 to $69 – 29%
  • Less than $60 – 3%

 

2) Expected Returns 

Highest Expected total return for asset class in next 12 months:

  1. Private Credit – 61%
  2. United States Equities – 57%
  3. Private Equity – 55%
  4. Private Equity Secondaries – 30%
  5. High Yield Debt – 28%
  6. Asset-Based Finance – 23%
  7. European Equities – 23%
  8. Infrastructure Equity – 22%
  9. Cryptocurrencies – 20%
  10. Hedge Funds – 18%

Select 5 Asset Classes with highest total return in next 12 months:

  1. Private Equity – 19%
  2. United States Equities – 17%
  3. Private Credit – 14%
  4. Cryptocurrencies – 9%
  5. Private Equity Secondaries – 8%
  6. Government & Agency Debt – 3%
  7. Infrastructure Equity – 3%
  8. Asset-Based Finance – 3%
  9. High Yield Debt – 3%

Select 5 Asset Classes with lowest total return in next 12 months:

  1. Cash & Short-Term Instruments – 19%
  2. Cryptocurrencies – 11%
  3. Green or Impact Bonds – 11%
  4. Government & Agency Debt – 10%
  5. Emerging Market Equities – 7%
  6. Real Estate Equity – 6%
  7. European Equities – 5%
  8. Municipal Bonds – 5%
  9. High Yield Debt – 4%
  10. Commodities – 4%
  11. Investment Grade Corporate Debt – 4%
  12. United States Equities – 3%

 

3) Investment Insights 

On Investment Opportunities:

  1. Improving – 18%
  2. Same – 44%
  3. Getting worse – 39%

Private Assets allocation in next 12 months:

  1. Increase – 62%
  2. Maintain – 35%
  3. Decrease – 3%

Current Credit Cycle: 

  1. Early Stage (Improving Credit Quality) – 0%
  2. Middle Stage (Stable Credit Quality) – 55%
  3. Late Stage (Deteriorating Credit Quality) – 45%

Net change in fixed income in next 12 months:

  1. Duration: +27%
  2. Credit Risk: +21%
  3. Liquidity risk: +14%
  4. Equity risk: -1%

Net increase in asset class in next 12 months:

  1. Private Credit: +56%
  2. Investment Grade Private Debt: +37%
  3. Asset-Based Finance: +35%
  4. Infrastructure Debt: +27%
  5. Private Equity Secondaries: +24%
  6. Private Equity: +23%
  7. Infrastructure Equity: +21%
  8. Collateralized Loan Obligations: +19%
  9. Green or Impact Bonds: +12%
  10. Residential Mortgage Loans: +9%
  11. Investment Grade Corporate Debt: +7%
  12. United States Equities: +7%
  13. Residential Mortgage-Backed Securities: +6%
  14. Commercial Mortgage Loans: +4%
  15. Hedge Funds: +1%

 

4) Private Credit

Top 4 Reasons to invest in Private Credit:

  1. High Expected Returns – 71%
  2. Diversification – 20%
  3. Low Defaults – 6%
  4. High Recoveries – 3%

Private Credit deals covenants (conditions) expectations in 2025:

  1. Tighten – 22%
  2. No change – 46%
  3. Loosen – 32%

Credit spread expectations in 2025:

  1. Tighten – 14%
  2. No change – 27%
  3. Widen – 59%

Private Credit investment preference (Fixed vs Floating):

  1. Fixed Rate – 58%
  2. No Preference – 20%
  3. Floating – 22%

 

5) Artificial Intelligence (AI) 

Expected Largest Portfolio Return on Artificial Intelligence (AI) for Americas Insurers (Investors):

  1. Infrastructure / Data Centers – 70%
  2. Utilities / Power Production – 44%
  3. Software – 39%
  4. Hardware – 13%

Expected Largest Portfolio Return on Artificial Intelligence (AI) for APAC Insurers (Investors):

  1. Infrastructure / Data Centers – 66%
  2. Software – 55%
  3. Utilities / Power Production – 26%
  4. Hardware – 23%

Expected Largest Portfolio Return on Artificial Intelligence (AI) for EMEA Insurers (Investors):

  1. Infrastructure / Data Centers – 58%
  2. Software – 54%
  3. Utilities / Power Production – 20%
  4. Hardware – 17%

Company Using Artificial Intelligence (AI):

  1. Yes – 48%
  2. Considering – 42%
  3. Not Considering – 10%

Top 4 Reasons to use Artificial Intelligence (AI):

  1. Reducing Operational Costs – 81%
  2. Insurance Risk Underwriting – 44%
  3. Marketing / Client Acquisition – 36%
  4. Evaluating Investments – 29%

 

6) ESG

ESG a factor in investment by Region (Investors):

  1. Americas – 59%
  2. APAC – 95%
  3. EMEA – 99%

Dedicated ESG investments in portfolio:

  1. Global – 58%
  2. Americas – 38%
  3. APAC – 74%
  4. EMEA – 62%

Top 4 Reasons for sustainability considerations in portfolio:

  1. Meet Stakeholder Considerations – 44%
  2. Current / Future Regulatory Requirements – 26%
  3. Risk Mitigation – 18%
  4. Enhance Risk-Adjusted Returns – 12%

Evaluate climate scenarios in risk assessment &/or asset allocation:

  1. Americas – 32%
  2. APAC – 30%
  3. EMEA – 55%

 

7) Insurance Industry – Private Capital, M&A

Private Capital Investments in Insurance Industry: 

  1. Accelerate – 66%
  2. Same – 30%
  3. Decelerate – 4%

Primary M&A Driver for Insurance Company in Americas:

  1. Scale / Synergies / Operational Efficiencies – 69%
  2. Expand Into New Lines of Business – 22%
  3. Broaden Geographic Footprint – 9%

Primary M&A Driver for Insurance Company in APAC:

  1. Scale / Synergies / Operational Efficiencies – 45%
  2. Expand Into New Lines of Business – 30%
  3. Broaden Geographic Footprint – 25%

Primary M&A Driver for Insurance Company in EMEA:

  1. Scale / Synergies / Operational Efficiencies – 77%
  2. Expand Into New Lines of Business – 15%
  3. Broaden Geographic Footprint – 8%

 

 

Methodology

The 14th annual Goldman Sachs Asset Management Global Insurance Survey provides valuable insights from 405 senior investment professionals, including Chief Investment Officers (CIOs) and Chief Financial Officers (CFOs), about the economic environment, asset allocation decisions, return expectations, portfolio construction, and industry capitalization. We received responses from 338 CIOs and senior investment professionals, 53 CFOs and senior finance managers and 14 individuals who serve as both CIO and CFO. The individuals surveyed represent insurance companies whose assets combine to over $14 trillion, representing approximately half of the balance sheet assets across the global insurance sector. The participating companies cover the full scope of the insurance landscape, across size, regions and lines of business. The table below summarizes this year’s respondents. 




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